Da Jeff J. Brown

A hoton da ke sama: Mummunan mafarkin da Eurangloland ta yi shine shugaban gurguzu mai hangen nesa, mai jajircewa, mai hangen nesa na tattalin arzikin duniya, wanda ke fafutukar kare dukkan 'yan ƙasarsa ba tare da gajiyawa ba. Wannan zai zama shugaban ƙasar Sin Xi Jinping. Godiya ga Axios China saboda kyakkyawan zane ( https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-china )

Sauke manhajar SoundCloud (kuma a ƙasan wannan shafin), da kuma yadda ake tallata ta a iTunes da Stitcher Radio (hanyoyin haɗin da ke ƙasa),

[jiki] T [/ dropcap]ya labarin kasa buga a cikin Financial Times yana da taken da ke sa ku duba sau biyu. Ee, mai daraja, ɗan jari-hujja, FT ya ƙyale mai ba da gudummawar baƙo ya faɗi a sarari: 'yan gurguzu da gurguzu China na iya yin mu'ujizai su faru. Abin da ba a faɗi ba shi ne cewa Eurangloland ba za ta iya yin abu iri ɗaya ba.

^{A lokacin babban taron jam'iyyar karo na 19} na kaka da ya gabata , Xi ya yi magana game da yaƙe-yaƙe uku masu tsauri da China za ta yi nasara a shekarar 2020, domin ƙasar ta zama al'umma mai nasara, mai wadata, wacce galibi take da matsakaicin matsayi ( http://www.ecns.cn/2018/04-02/297907.shtml ). Waɗannan su ne talauci, muhalli da kuma ɓangaren kuɗi.

Na yi rubutu a lokuta da dama game da ƙoƙarin Baba Beijing na rage talauci mai tsanani ba kawai ba, har ma da kawar da talauci mai tsanani a faɗin ƙasar nan da shekarar 2020, wanda aka tsara zai cika ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/12/18/in-china-s-is-for-savings-from-gold-to-tea-to-art-china-rising-radio-sinoland-171217/ ). A halin yanzu, mutane a duk faɗin Eurangloland suna faɗawa cikin talauci mai zurfi, rashin matsuguni da yunwa ( http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/05/20/562376/US-households-poverty- ). Tsawon rai ma yana raguwa a Amurka ( https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/1/9/16860994/life-expectacy-us-income-inequality ).

Xi ya tsara hangen nesansa mai ban mamaki game da wayewar muhalli ( https://www.greanvillepost.com/2018/05/08/chinas-determined-march-towards-the-ecological-civilization-updated/ ). China ba za ta zama wurin shakatawa na ƙasa mai tsabta nan da shekarar 2020 ba, amma canji da ci gaba a muhalli a faɗin ƙasar a bayyane yake ga duk wanda ke zaune a nan, kamar Shenzhen ta maye gurbin motocin bas na gwamnati 15,000 da motocin lantarki masu amfani da batir 100% ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/09/28/empire-is-1-in-everything-including-public-bus-systems-right-china-rising-radio-sinoland-170928/ ). Ƙaramar 'yarmu za ta je jami'a a Beijing kuma tun lokacin da muka ƙaura zuwa Shenzhen daga can shekaru biyu da suka gabata, ta ce inganta ingancin iska a babban birnin a bayyane yake, an yi ta ne da nufin yin magana ( https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-pollution-beijing/beijing-meets-2017-air-pollution-target-set-under-2013-clean-up-plan-idUSKBN1ES0J6 ).

Amma kowa ya sani, har da Xi da kansa, cewa babban kahuna, succubus da ke goyon bayan kowane shugaban ƙasa su ne bankuna. Haka ne, dukkan bankunan China mallakar gwamnati ne kuma dukkan manyan shugabannin kamfanoni membobin Jam'iyyar Kwaminis ta China (CPC), gami da wataƙila kowane shugaban banki har zuwa matakin lardi. Kamar ko'ina, bankuna suna da arziki, suna da tasiri mai yawa a cikin tattalin arziki kuma idan aka ba su dama, za su ci gaba da tafiyar da harkokin siyasa cikin ɗan lokaci kaɗan. A gaskiya manyan bankuna huɗu a duniya mallakar mutanen China ne, don haka Baba Beijing dole ne ya fi girma da ƙarfi fiye da waɗannan manyan mutane, don su mai da hankali kan masu hannun jarinsu, 'yan ƙasa, ba kan girman kai da kuma ƙarshen al'amari ba ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/05/13/so-called-communist-china-by-jeff-j-brown-in-the-all-china-review/ ).

Kamar yadda labarin da ke ƙasa ya bayyana, a cikin rashin ingantaccen dokoki da ƙa'idodi, bankunan suna da wuyar zama masu haɗama da rashin hankali, har ma da na gurguzu da gurguzu. Kamar dai a kasashen yammacin duniya, bankunan kasar Sin suna tattara basussukan da ba su da tabbas a cikin kowane nau'in kayayyakin da ake samarwa da sayar da su ga kananan bankunan da ba su da inganci, kamfanonin inshora don neman kudin ruwa, tare da masu zuba jari masu fama da yunwa a kasar Sin da ma duniya baki daya.

Sai kuma tsarin banki mai duhu wanda ke wanzuwa a kowace tattalin arziki na kasuwa. Waɗannan su ne masu ba da lamuni marasa lasisi da bankuna masu lasisi waɗanda ke ƙirƙirar ƙungiyoyin shari'a waɗanda suka sami kura-kurai a cikin ƙa'idoji don ba da rancen kuɗi mai ƙarancin inganci ga masu karɓar bashi waɗanda ke da takaddun shaida marasa ƙarfi. A Amurka, yi tunanin bashin mabukaci mai riba, rancen albashi, gidaje masu ƙarancin riba, rancen mota, da makamantansu. A nan China, ina samun takardu da ƙasidu akai-akai yayin da nake yawo a cikin gari, daga kamfanonin saka hannun jari na kuɗi waɗanda ke ba da riba mai kyau da ba za a iya samu ba akan saka hannun jari. Waɗannan su ne manyan misalai na masu ba da lamuni na inuwa.

Kamar yadda jadawali na biyu ya nuna a kasa, tsarin banki mai ban tsoro na inuwa na kasar Sin ya bar baya da kura a cikin shekara ta 2000, kuma ya tashi a hankali har zuwa shekarar 2013. Kasancewar an zabi Xi Jinping a matsayin shugaban kasa, kuma wannan gidan kati ya fara raguwa kamar ciwace-ciwacen da aka yi wa radiation ba wani abu ba ne. Jadawalin farko ya nuna cewa, a cikin watanni hudun farko na shekarar 2018, Baba Beijing ya shake dalar Amurka biliyan 274 daga cikin dodanni, yayin da bankin inuwar kasar Sin ke ci gaba da tafiya zuwa ga mantawa.

Wannan duk wani babban labari ne, amma kamar yadda labarin ya bayyana, kasar Sin ta yi nisa wajen warware matsalolin bashi. Duk da haka, abin ban sha'awa game da shi shi ne cewa Baba Beijing yana bin wannan dabbar banki kamar damisa a kan tunkiya kuma yana samun ci gaba mai ban mamaki. Kamar yadda kasar Sin ta damu da muhalli mai tsanani, shin za a warware matsalar bashin 100% nan da shekarar 2020? Wataƙila ba haka ba ne, amma babban abin da ya kamata a yi a nan shi ne cewa Baba yana tafiya a hankali a kai a kai a kan hanyar da ta dace, yayin da yake tafiya a daidai kishiyar hanyar Eurangloland.

A Yamma, tun daga ƙarni da yawa, masu banki sun mallaki gwamnatocinsu da masu mulkinsu kamar abubuwan wasa da wuraren riba, don haka suna mallakar 'yan ƙasa. Kawai sai mutum ya ga raguwar masu biyan haraji suna ceton bankunan Yamma, tun daga shekarun 1980, tare da rage tsarin masana'antar kuɗi ta Eurangloland. Wannan ba zai iya faruwa a nan ba, tunda 'yan ƙasa sun riga sun mallaki bankunan. Idan Baba Beijing ta tilasta wa mutanenta su kashe tiriliyan daloli da Yuro don ci gaba da cin hanci da rashawa, masu kuɗi da farin ciki, za su kifar da gwamnati su nemi sabuwar Mandate ta Sama. Haka dimokuraɗiyya mai ƙarfi ta gurguzu da kwaminisanci ke aiki ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2018/01/30/60-seconds-over-sinoland-selling-breast-milk-as-public-protest-is-chinese-democracy-in-action-china-rising-radio-sinoland-180131/ ). Mun san yadda Potemkin na Yammacin duniya "dimokuradiyya mai shiga tsakani da tattalin arzikin kasuwa mai 'yanci" ba ya saurara ko amsa buƙatun jama'a da buƙatunsu. Hillary Clinton ta kira su abin takaici na al'umma kuma kashi 99% ba sa ƙidaya. 'Yan Euranglanders suna wanzuwa don yi wa manyan mutane hidima 1% da kuma ajin masu taimaka musu waɗanda ke gudanar da ƙungiyar laifuka ta duniya ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/11/17/i-can-see-for-miles-in-china-what-do-you-see-from-your-vantage-point-china-rising-radio-sinoland-171117 ).

Ina matukar girmama masana tattalin arziki masu hazaka kamar David Stockman, Paul Krugman, Joseph Stiglitz da sauransu. Sun fi ni wayo sosai. Abin da ya fi burge ni shi ne Baba Beijing tana kai hari ga matsalar bashinta kai tsaye kuma tana samun nasara, wanda ya fi ƙarfin horo da gogewa, domin China gurguzu ce kuma masana tattalin arziki na Yammacin duniya 'yan jari-hujja ne. Ba su da fahimtar ka'idar tattalin arziki da ayyukan Marxist-Leninist-Maoist ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/10/25/how-can-western-capitalism-beat-this-thats-the-rub-it-cant-china-rising-radio-sinoland-171022/ ). Kamar tambayar su su yi magana da Sinanci sosai kuma a mafi yawan lokuta, lokacin da suka yi azuzuwan kwaleji ɗaya ko biyu kawai a Mandarin. Duk da haka, duk suna yin Allah wadai da bashin China mai ƙarfi, na lokaci-lokaci da kuma gidan kadarori, da kuma yadda ƙasar ke cikin mawuyacin hali.

Za ka iya karba daga gare ni, a matsayina na wanda ya taba rayuwa a kasar nan kuma ya yi nazari tun 1990. Abin ba zai faru ba, domin kasar Sin ita ce duk wani abu da tsarin jari-hujja ba zai taba zama ba.

Akwai wani muhimmin batu da ba a bayyana ba a taron Jam'iyyar karo na 19 da aka gudanar a China ^. Baba Beijing tana mulki da jagorantar kasar tare da Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping da kuma Xi Jinping a yanzu a matsayin tushen ilimi da gogewa, kuma za ku iya ci gaba da ƙara Jiang Zemin da Hu Jintao a tsakaninsu. Majalisar ta ce godiya ga wannan, al'ummar Sin za su iya cin kek ɗinsu su ci shi ma. Kuma gaskiya ne, su ne. Kawai sai ku yi yawo a birane da karkara na kasar Sin don ganinsa duk inda kuka duba, kuma dole ne ku sanya abubuwan da ba su da tushe a akida don musanta hakan ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/08/26/china-is-the-most-plugged-in-big-economy-in-the-world-china-rising-radio-sinoland-170824/ ).

Rashin son turawan yamma na daina sanya tsarin jari-hujja a kan ginshikinsa mai launin fure, kyawawa, kyawawa, kamar cikakkar akida ko addini da ba za a iya tambaya ba, yayin da a akida suka ki fassara gaskiya da bambance-bambancen kwaminisanci da na gurguzu na kasar Sin mai digiri 180, dabi'un wanke kwakwale ne da ke da wuya a canza. Kwanan nan na yi magana da wani hamshakin masanin tattalin arziki Ba’amurke wanda ya zo nan don gabatar da jawabi kuma suna cewa bashin kasar Sin da kumfa na kadarorinsa ya kaddara, kamar yadda aka yi a tarihi. Na gaya wa wannan mutumin, wanda nake matukar sha'awarsa, cewa idan akwai wata kasa a duniya da za ta iya yin nasarar cire iska mai yawa daga bashin da take da shi da kuma kumfa na gidaje, to, kasar Sin, kasancewa mai ra'ayin gurguzu- gurguzu ne zai iya yin hakan. Amsar da suka bayar ita ce, abu ne mai wuya, amma wa ya sani, komai na iya faruwa.

Yanzu mun sani. Yana faruwa - a nan kasar Sin.

Kumfa rancen kasar Sin tarihi ne

PAUL HODGES 22 GA MAYU, 2018

A bayyane yake shugaba Xi Jinping ya san cewa yana fuskantar kalubale mai tsanani na shawo kan ayyukan bankin inuwar kasar Sin ya kasance wata babbar hanyar bayar da lamuni ga tattalin arzikin duniya. Amma 2018 ya gan shi yana shiga wasansa na ƙarshe, kamar yadda ginshiƙi na farko ya nuna, ya ragu da kashi 64 cikin ɗari a cikin sharuddan renminbi a cikin Janairu zuwa Afrilu daga daidai wannan lokacin a bara (ta $274bn a dala).

Farkon shekara yawanci lokaci ne na kololuwar lokacin bayar da lamuni, tare da bankuna suna samun sabbin kaso na shekara.

Har ila yau, faɗuwar ta kasance abin lura yayin da aka kawo ƙarshen kumfa na rancen China, wanda ya fara a cikin 2009 bayan rikicin kuɗi. Kafin nan, jimillar kuɗaɗen tallafin jama'a na kasar Sin (TSF), wanda ya haɗa da ba da lamuni a hukumance da na inuwa, ya ninka yawan kuɗin gida sau 2 a tsakanin shekarar 2002 zuwa 2008. Amma tsakanin shekarar 2009 zuwa 2013, ya haura zuwa sau 3.2 na GDP, yayin da shirin bunkasuwar Sin ya tashi.

Ba hatsari ba ne, alal misali, biranen Tier 1 na kasar Sin suna alfahari da wasu daga cikin mafi girman farashin gidaje da ake samu a duniya, ko kuma, masu sayayya na kasar Sin sun mamaye muhimman sassan kasuwar kadarorin duniya a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.

Hoton ya fara canjawa ne tun da fara wa'adin mulkin shugaba Xi Jinping na farko a shekarar 2013, kamar yadda jadawalin mu na biyu ya tabbatar. Rabon bankin inuwa na TSF tun daga lokacin ya ragu daga kusan kashi 50 cikin 15 zuwa kashi 8 cikin 2002 a watan Afrilu, kusan komawa zuwa kashi 2.4 cikin 2014 na shekarar 2017. TSF ta riga ta ragu zuwa sau XNUMX GDP a shekarar XNUMX zuwa XNUMX.

Farkon wa'adi na biyu na Mr Xi ya sa ya dauki nauyin tafiyar da harkokin tattalin arziki ta hanyar tsarin manyan kungiyoyinsa na tsakiya. Ya kuma iya sanya magoya bayansa a manyan mukamai don taimakawa wajen tabbatar da daidaito yayin da ake fitar da sauye-sauyen manufofin.

Don haka bayanan ba da lamuni na wannan shekara na iya zama abin koyi ga nan gaba, maimakon zama ɓata lokaci ɗaya. Kodayake an sake dawo da wasu lamunin inuwa a cikin sashin hukuma, TSF ta faɗi da kashi 14 cikin ɗari ($ 110bn) a farkon watanni huɗu na shekara. Tuni tattalin arzikin ya lura da tasirin. Tallace-tallacen motoci, alal misali, wanda a tsayin shirin haɓakawa ya haɓaka sama da kashi 50 cikin ɗari a cikin 2009 kuma da kashi uku a cikin 2010, ya sami ci gaban kashi 3 cikin ɗari kawai a bana.

Koma bayan tattalin arziki ya kuma tabbatar da muhimmancin shawarar da Mr Xi ya yanke ta yin "rage kashe kuɗi" a matsayin na farko daga cikin "yaƙe-yaƙe uku masu tsauri" da ya yi alƙawarin yi don tabbatar da burin China na zama "al'umma mai matsakaicin wadata" nan da shekarar 2020, kamar yadda muka tattauna a watan Fabrairu.

Yana yin bayani game da gargaɗin IMF a cikin sabon Rahoton Kuɗin Zaman Lafiya na Duniya cewa:

"A kasar Sin, masu kula da harkokin kudi sun dauki matakai da yawa don rage kasada a cikin tsarin hada-hadar kudi, duk da kokarin da ake yi, duk da haka, ana ci gaba da samun rauni.

Matsalolin sun shafi kusancin da ke tsakanin sashen banki na kasar Sin Rmb250tn ($40tn) da kuma bankunan inuwa, ta hanyar bayyanar da motocin sa hannun jari na Rmb75tn da ba a daidaita su ba. Shawarar da aka yanke na samar da sabuwar hukumar kula da harkokin bankuna da inshorar kwanan nan wata alama ce ta sauye-sauyen da ake gudanarwa, domin hakan zai kawar da damar da aka samu a baya na sasantawa da aka samu a baya bayan nan ta hanyar samar da wasu ka'idoji daban-daban a cikin masana'antun banki da inshora na aiki iri daya, kamar haya.

Kamar yadda ginshiƙi na IMF da ke ƙasa ya nuna, motocin da ba a sarrafa su da sauƙi sun taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen bunƙasa lamuni na kasar Sin. Bankunan, alal misali, sun sami damar yin amfani da sashin inuwa don sake dawo da jarin kuɗi masu haɗari a matsayin samfuran ajiyar kuɗi masu ƙarancin haɗari, waɗanda daga nan aka samar da su ga masu siye ta hanyar taɓa maɓallin wayar su. Wannan ci gaban ya kara yawan haɗarin ruwa a tsakanin kanana da matsakaitan bankuna, waɗanda dogaro da kuɗaɗen ba da ajiya na ɗan lokaci ya kasance babba. IMF ta lura, alal misali, cewa "fiye da kashi 80 cikin XNUMX na fitattun kayayyakin sarrafa dukiya ana lissafinsu a matsayin ƙananan haɗari".

A bayyane yake Mr Xi ya san cewa yana fuskantar kalubale mai tsanani na sake farfado da aikin, idan aka yi la'akari da kirkire-kirkire da bankunan suka nuna wajen bunkasa lamuni a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Shirin kara kuzari ya kuma samar da nasa magoya bayansa a fannin gine-gine da kuma masana'antu masu alaka da su, saboda makudan kudade da suke wanki a kasuwannin kadarorin kasar Sin, da neman shiga kasuwannin ketare.

Amma a yanzu Mr Xi ya zama shugaba mafi karfin fada a ji a kasar Sin tun bayan Mao, kuma da alama rashin hikima ne a yi masa rashin nasara tare da manufarsa na yin nasara, ko da kuwa hakan zai haifar da dadewa ga tattalin arzikin kasar, yayin da aka dawo da tsarin banki a inuwa.

Kamar yadda Gabriel Wildau ya ruwaito , bangaren gwamnati ya riga ya fuskanci matsin lamba daga Beijing don kara yawan jarinsa. Masu sharhi na nuna cewa bankunan tsakiya na iya buƙatar dala biliyan 170 na sabon jari, yayin da Moody's ya yi kiyasin cewa manyan bankunan guda huɗu na iya buƙatar fiye da ninki biyu na wannan adadin nan da shekarar 2025 dangane da "bashi na musamman" don cika sabbin ƙa'idojin Hukumar Daidaita Kuɗi.

Ainihin, don haka, kumfa na bayar da lamuni na kasar Sin yanzu ya zama tarihi, kuma ruwan babban birnin kasar yana komawa baya. Don haka ba abin mamaki ba ne yadda a yanzu farashin ruwa ya karu a duniya, yayin da adadin shekaru 10 na Amurka ya ragu da kashi 3 cikin dari. Ana iya ba masu saka hannun jari da kamfanoni shawara da su shirya don wasu manyan firgici a gaba. Kamar yadda Warren Buffett ya taɓa faɗa cikin hikima, "sai lokacin da ruwa ya fita, ka gano wanda ke yin iyo tsirara".

Paul Hodges da Daniël de Blocq van Scheltinga sun buga Rahoton pH.

lura: Lokacin da aka gama karantawa, sauraron da/ko kallon wannan shafi da kwasfan fayiloli, rabawa yana kula da makomar ɗan adam da kuma samun gaskiyar da ba ta gama gari ba ga ɗimbin masu sauraro. Da fatan za a gaya wa dangin ku, abokai da abokan aikin ku Gidan Rediyon kasar Sin ya tashi (www.chinarising.puntopress.com - https://twitter.com/44_Days - https://www.facebook.com/44DaysPublishing - https://vk.com/chinarisingradiosinoland -  http://apps.monk.ee/tyrion), aika kuma ku bi shi a duk kafofin watsa labarun ku. Yi rajista don faɗakarwar imel akan wannan shafin yanar gizon, don kada ku rasa nasara. Kasar Sin ita ce mabuɗin ku don fahimtar yadda duniya ke aiki da kuma inda kuka dosa cikin 21^st karni. Don haka, karanta "The China Trilogy". Za ku yi murna da kuka yi! (http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/05/19/the-china-trilogy/)

Idan kun ga aikin China Rising Radio Sinoland yana da amfani kuma kuna godiya da ingancinsa, da fatan za ku yi la'akari da bayar da gudummawa. Ana kashe kuɗi don biyan kuɗin Intanet, gyarawa, haɓaka hanyar sadarwar kwamfuta, da haɓaka shafin.

Me ya sa kuma yadda kasar Sin ke aiki: Tare da madubi zuwa Tarihinmu

Kwanaki 44 na Komawa a China

Tashin kasar Sin: Hanyoyi na jari-hujja, wuraren gurguzu

China 'yar kwaminisanci ce, dam! Dawn of the Red Dynasty

Don Littattafan Jeff J Brown, Radio Sinoland & kafofin watsa labarun