Da Jeff J. Brown

A sama: an buga wannan zane-zanen siyasa daga Jaridar Economist lokacin da Ma Ying-Jiou ke goyon bayan sake hadewa da Taiwan, har zuwa shekarar 2015, amma muhimman abubuwan da ke faruwa ba su canza ba tun lokacin da Tsai Ing-Wen mai goyon bayan 'yan aware ta maye gurbinsa: Baba Beijing da Jamhuriyar Jama'ar China ne ke riƙe da dukkan katunan.

Lura: Idan ka gama karantawa, sauraron da/ko kallon wannan shafi da podcast, rabawa yana nuna damuwa game da makomar ɗan adam da kuma isar da gaskiyar da ba ta da tushe ga masu sauraro da yawa. Da fatan za a gaya wa iyalinka, abokai da abokan aiki game da China Rising Radio Sinoland ( www.chinarising.puntopress.com – @44_Days – https://www.facebook.com/44DaysPublishing ), ka saka kuma ka bi ta a duk shafukan sada zumunta. Yi rijista don faɗakarwar imel a wannan shafin yanar gizo, don kada ka rasa komai. Sannan, karanta The China Trilogy , don fahimtar duniyarka da kuma inda kake nufi zuwa ƙarni na 21 ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/05/19/the-china-trilogy/ ). Za ka yi farin ciki da ka yi!

Zazzage podcast SoundCloud (kuma a kasan wannan shafin), haka kuma ana haɗa shi akan iTunes da Stitcher Radio (hanyoyin da ke ƙasa),

Daga 'yantar da Jamhuriyar Jama'ar Sin (PRC) a shekarar 1949 har zuwa lokacin da shugaban kasar Amurka Richard Nixon ya gana da Mao Zedong a shekarar 1972, Taiwan (tare da Tibet) sun yi amfani da ita a matsayin kasa da kasa wajen kawar da yankin 'yan gurguzu. Kafin shekara ta 1972, sojojin Amurka da CIA sun yi aiki tare da mulkin kama-karya na KMT na kasar Taiwan, wajen aika daruruwan ayyukan kunar bakin wake a cikin yankin Mainland, don lalata ababen more rayuwa da haifar da barna, tare da aikewa da yaudarar kwakwalwar da aka yi ta tunanin za su iya durkusar da jam'iyyar Kwaminis ta Sin (CPC). Yuk-yuk-ha-ha, mummunan wargi ya kasance a kansu.

Tun daga 1972, tare da Amurka da China yanzu ba abokan gaba na mutuwa ba, Uncle Sam ya goyi bayan kasancewar ku a fuskar ku tare da yin amfani da Taiwan a matsayin tushen rushewa. Ko ta yaya dai, Amurka tana ci da wuta a kudu maso gabashin Asiya, wanda shine daya daga cikin dalilan da Nixon ya janye wannan gagarumin sauyi na diflomasiyya, da fatan ganin Mao ya daina bai wa 'yan gurguzu ta Arewa Viet Cong makamai da hankali.

Kamar yadda a ko'ina ake da "dimokuradiyya mai yawan jama'a", Taiwan ƙasa ce mai jam'iyya ɗaya, mallakar manyan mutane. Kamar Amurka da sauran wurare, tana da jam'iyyu biyu masu "abokan gaba", a zahiri, ɓangaren hagu da dama na jam'iyyar jari hujja mai ƙarfi. A yanayin Taiwan, ita ce Jam'iyyar haɗa kan China ɗaya da Jam'iyyar Dimokuradiyya ta China biyu (DPP), wacce aka kafa a shekarar 1986. Shekaru talatin bayan haka, a shekarar 2016, Jam'iyyar DPP ta lashe shugabancin ƙasa da rinjayen 'yan majalisa, inda Mrs. Tsai Ing-Wen ta zama shugabar tsibirin. Baba Beijing bai yi wasa ba kuma Tsai ta yi amfani da kalmomi da kalamai masu kyau, don bai wa masu zaman kansu a Taiwan jan naman da suke nema. Dangantaka tsakanin mashigin teku ba ta yi muni haka ba tun lokacin da tsibirin ke ƙarƙashin dokar yaƙi mai tsoron kwamitoci, har zuwa 1986 ( http://www.nytimes.com/1987/07/15/world/taiwan-ends-4-decades-of-martial-law.html ), kuma gwamnatin Tsai ta bambanta da ta baya, inda haɗin gwiwar Sino-Taiwan ya kai matsayinsa na farko, a ƙarƙashin shugaban KMT Ma Ying-Jiou.

Tun daga shekarar 2016, Taiwan da jam'iyyarta mai 'yancin kai kuma shugabar ta, DPP Tsai Ing-Wen, suna fuskantar mummunan yanayi: suna da ruɗani kuma sun fita daga ƙarni na 21. ^Na gode www.scmp.com

Babban yankin da Taiwan sun cimma yarjejeniya, daga ƙarshe aka kira Yarjejeniyar 1992 , inda ɓangarorin biyu suka yi iƙirarin mallakar ɗayan, a matsayin China ɗaya, sannan suka bar ta a haka. Abin da ya kasance a zahiri, shi ne yarda da Taiwan a ɓoye cewa ya kamata ta cimma wani irin sulhu da Mamayar Ƙasa, domin shiga cikin ci gaban China mai girma da lambobi biyu ( http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1104732/1992-consensus-between-beijing-and-taipei-appeares-here-stay ). Koriya, Japan, Eurangloland da kowa yana neman zinare a cikin Sino-Eldorado mai cike da rudani a China, yayin da Taiwan ke kallon yamma a ketaren ruwa, da kishi mai ban tsoro. Shugaban kisan kare dangi na tsibirin, Chiang Kai-Shek ya mutu tun 1975 kuma lokaci ya yi da za a daidaita ko a lalace cikin rashin dacewar tattalin arzikin duniya.

Hmm… Ina kallon wannan taswirar, ina mamakin wanne ne zai yi mulkin ɗayan, Taiwan mai mulkin ƙasar Mainland, ko PRC ta sake haɗa Taiwan cikin rukunin Sinawa?

Sakamakon Yarjejeniya Ta 1992, dangantakar da ke tsakaninta da juna, sadarwa da saka hannun jari na ci gaba da yin katsalandan, har ma da yadda jam'iyyar DPP ta yi kukan ballewa daga kasar uwa.

 ballewa ba zai taba faruwa ba.

Tun daga shekarar 1949, Babban yankin ya shaida wa duniya da babbar murya cewa zai sake haɗa Taiwan da ƙarfi, idan tsibirin ya yi ƙoƙarin zama ƙasa mai 'yancin kai. Babu wani yanayi na rudani, babu wata ruɗani, babu wata magana. A cikin jawabin shugaban ƙasar Sin Xi Jinping na 19 ^a taron jam'iyyar kwaminis, ya yi nuni da cewa manufar ita ce a sake haɗa dukkan China nan da shekarar 2049 ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/10/23/xi-jinpings-19th-party-congress-speech-is-a-declaration-of-war-vs-western-capitalism-china-rising-radio-sinoland-171023/ ). Ga Hong Kong, hakan na nufin 2047, ta hanyar yarjejeniya ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/08/26/baba-beijing-is-sick-and-tired-of-the-west-using-hong-kong-to-overthrow-the-cpc-china-rising-radio-sinoland-170821-2/ ). Sannan, Macau ya shiga sahun gaba a shekarar 2049, kuma ta hanyar yarjejeniya ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Declaration_on_the_Question_of_Macau ). Tunda babu wani jadawalin da aka amince da shi game da Taiwan, kalmomin Xi na nufin cewa idan matsin lamba ya zo kuma Taiwan har yanzu tana ƙoƙarin kasancewa ba tare da Babban Ƙasa ba, to Baba Beijing na iya buƙatar amfani da ƙarfin tattalin arziki ko na soja.

Shekarar 2049 ta zama abin tarihi ga jam'iyyar PRC, domin wannan zai zama cikar shekaru 100 da kafuwarta, tare da CPC a matsayin jagora. Tunanin Baba Beijing shine cewa shekaru 100 sun isa Taiwan ta sake shiga cikin Uwar Duniya. A wannan lokacin, China za ta daɗe tana zarce Amurka da Tarayyar Turai (EU) a cikin jimlar kayayyakin ƙasa (GNP) kuma Shirin Belt and Road (BRI) zai yi fice a duk faɗin Asiya da kuma Turai da Afirka ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2017/05/16/chinas-dream-is-changing-your-world-while-the-west-declines-godfree-roberts-on-cr-radio-sinoland/ ). Taiwan tana da 'yan ƙasa 23,000,000, yawan jama'a iri ɗaya da kowace birni ta China Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing ko Guangzhou. A fannin tattalin arziki, ƙwari ne na Asiya a kan giwayen Sino-giwaye na duniya. A fannin siyasa, girman bera ne a kan wannan babban dutsen duniya, kawai saboda Amurka mai mulkin mallaka tana ɓoye a baya kuma tana ci gaba da sayar da makamai.

 Baba Beijing yana da yanayi guda uku don tabbatar da cewa PRC ta cika nan da 2049.

 Na farko, shi ne ci gaba da dunkulewar tattalin arzikin kasashen biyu, a hakikanin gaskiya, kasar Sin ta mamaye Taiwan, har ta kai ga tsibirin ya ga rubuce-rubucen da aka rubuta a bango, kuma ya shiga cikin rudani. Idan hakan bai yi tasiri ba, Mainland zai iya durkusar da wannan lardin cikin sauki, tare da kaurace wa tattalin arziki, tare da korar mazauna yankin Taiwan 1,000,000 da suke kasuwanci a kasar Sin - kusan kashi 5% na yawan jama'ar tsibirin. Tunda da yawa daga cikinsu sun mallaki jarin jari mai yawa a nan, ina tsammanin bayan jigilar 'yan gudun hijira ɗaya ko biyu da aka sauke a Taiwan zai isa. Yin bibiyar hakan na nufin rugujewar tattalin arzikin Taiwan, ya bar ta ya bayyana nasara, kuma ya zama yanki na karshe na sake hadewar kasar Sin.

Zabi na ƙarshe ba shakka shine na soja. Sojojin ruwan China sun riga sun fi ƙarfin abin da Amurka za ta iya ajiyewa a Tekun Kudancin China ( http://chinarising.puntopress.com/2016/09/04/from-may-9th-in-moscow-to-september-3rd-in-beijing-the-anti-west-order-comes-full-circle-reprint/ ) kuma wataƙila ya bayyana dalilin da yasa Baba Beijing ke gina jirgin ruwanta na uku a cikin tarihin tarihi ( http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2126883/china-has-started-building-its-third-aircraft-carrier ). Baba Beijing zai iya yin hakan ba tare da harba harsashi ɗaya ba. Kawai sanya shingen sarkar jiragen ruwa a kusa da Taiwan kuma tsibirin zai iya ɗaukar tsawon wata ɗaya ko makamancin haka, kafin a ayyana nasara da kuma sanya hannu a kan layin dogo. Idan China ta koma mamaye Taiwan, damar Amurka da gaske na ƙoƙarin kare tsibirin yana raguwa kowace rana. Koma dai mene ne, yarjejeniyar tsaron juna tsakanin Sin da Amurka ta shekarar 1955-1979 (Taiwanese) ta rasa inganci, inda Jimmy Carter ya amince da PRC ta hanyar diflomasiyya a shekarar da ta gabata ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense_Treaty ). Tun daga lokacin, Kawu Sam bai ma daure wa yarjejeniyar yin hakan ba, kuma ba zai sami damar yin wani babban canji ba har zuwa yanzu, sai dai a yi masa rashin kunya.

Ina shakkar Amurka za ta yi duk abin da za ta yi don taimakawa Taiwan da aka mamaye ta. Amurka ba za ta damu da ganin dubban mutane ko miliyoyin 'yan Taiwan sun rasa rayukansu ba, idan hakan yana nufin cutar da martabar China ta gurguzu a duniya. Duk dauloli ba su da adadi kuma ba su da wariyar launin fata. Kwanan nan, Kawu Sam yana rawa kusa da wutar Sino-gobara, tare da sabuwar sigar Dokar Ba da Izini ta Tsaron Ƙasa (NDAA) da ta ba da damar yin atisayen soja tare da Taiwan ( http://theduran.com/china-threatens-state-war-us-threatens-sovereignty/ ). Ga Baba Beijing, wannan zai zama sanarwar yaƙi, tare da babban jami'in diflomasiyyar China Li Kexin yana cewa,

 Ranar da jirgin ruwan Amurka ya isa Kaohsiung ita ce ranar da sojojin mu na 'yantar da yankin suka hade yankin Taiwan da karfin soji.

 Dubi sakin layi na sama, zaɓi na ƙarshe, don abin da zai faru na gaba.

B aba Beijing tana da haƙuri, tana da haƙuri sosai, kuma tana farin cikin ci gaba da kasancewa a halin da ake ciki na tsawon shekaru 30, idan hakan yana nufin sake haɗewa cikin lumana. A halin yanzu, idan jam'iyyar Democrat People's Party mai ra'ayin wariya ta Taiwan ta sami gashin kanta mai ban tsoro kuma ta ayyana 'yancin kai daga Mamayar Ƙasa, to ko mene ne. Kowanne daga cikin abubuwan uku da na bayyana a sama China za ta iya aiwatarwa gobe. Da alama Taiwan ta ruɗe, idan wannan binciken da aka yi kwanan nan ya kasance daidai, yana nuna cewa kashi 54% sun fi son ballewa ( http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2099286/most-taiwanese-considered-taiwan-china-separate-countries ). Shin suna shirye su yi yaƙi da Babban Ƙasar don hakan? Shin suna shirye su mutu don manufarsu? China tana da 'yan ƙasa biliyan 1.4 da ke sha'awar amsa kiran, waɗanda miliyoyin mutane ba a san su ba suna son mutuwa don sake haɗewar China gaba ɗaya. A bayyane yake, Taiwan tana da 'yan ƙasa kusan miliyan 12 ne kawai waɗanda ke son 'yancin kai. Na san wanda nake saka fare na a kansa.

 Wata hanya ko wata, ko cikin lumana ko turawa ta zo ga mamayewa kai tsaye, al'ummar Taiwan masu kishin kasar Sin ne masu kishin kasar Sin, masu ruguzawa da karkata. 

Fosta mai juyin juya hali, da kuma ganin mutumin da ke riƙe da ƙaramin littafin ja na Mao , wataƙila daga tsakiyar shekarun 1949 ne. Gaskiya ne a 1949, har yanzu yana cikin 2018 kuma babu abin da zai canza a 2049. Taiwan za ta sake haɗuwa da ƙasar uwa. Matukin jirgi, manomi, soja, ma'aikaci, masunta, raƙuman ruwa bayan raƙuman ruwa; sararin sama cike da jiragen sama na sojojin sama da teku cike da Rundunar Sojan Ruwa ta Ja. Ina tsammanin za mu iya cewa suna da cikakken ƙuduri a fuskokinsu. Kasancewar an buga su da Ingilishi, Faransanci da Sinanci, Baba Beijing yana son ƙasashen yamma su san manufar China ba tare da yin shawarwari ba.

Idan ka ga aikin China Rising Radio Sinoland yana da amfani kuma kana yaba da ingancinsa, da fatan za ka yi la'akari da bayar da gudummawa. Ana kashe kuɗi don biyan kuɗin intanet, gyarawa, haɓaka hanyar sadarwar kwamfuta, da haɓaka shafin.

Ko mafi kyau tukuna, saya ɗaya daga cikin littattafan Jeff da aka bayar a ƙasa.

Me ya sa kuma yadda kasar Sin ke aiki: Tare da madubi zuwa Tarihinmu

China 'yar kwaminisanci ce, dam! Dawn of the Red Dynasty

Tashin kasar Sin: Hanyoyi na jari-hujja, wuraren gurguzu

Don Littattafan Jeff J Brown, Radio Sinoland & kafofin watsa labarun